Christmastime Oscar Predictions Updated- 12/27/11

The Weeks leading up to Christmas were full of award nominations by the top critic groups (The New York Film Critics- NYFCC, the Las Angeles Films Critics-LAFCA, the National Board of Review-NBR, and the American Film Institute- AFI).  Also announcing their favorite films of the year were the Broadcast Film Critics (BFCA), the Hollywood Foreign Press/The Golden Globes, and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG).  All these early awards and nominations have made the Oscar race much clearer and we now see who are the real contenders and which films and performances are dead.  Doing well in the last few weeks as projected were The Artist, Hugo, The Descendants, The Help, and War Horse.  All five seem poised for Best Picture nominations.  Also doing well were Moneyball and Midnight in Paris.  While these two films may not have enough passion in the Academy, they are still strong contenders for the Best Picture spot.  With somewhere between 5 and ten nominees for Best Picture under the new Academy rules, we could see both of them get in.  Alongside them, The Tree of Life, could pop up on Academy day.  Right now I'm just predicting 7 nominees for Best Picture.  Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is an interesting case.  It hasn't been doing the greatest in nominations with precursor groups, but it was released late and maybe too late for these voting bodies.  Some reviews for the film have been highly negative though.  Maybe it won't get in at all in any categories.  The Ides of March managed to get some help with a Golden Globe nomination, but it seems that that alone will not save it.  Maybe Bridesmaids will surprise up on Oscar nomination morning, but I doubt it.  Lastly, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy has failed to get any early recognition, besides from the British Indie Awards.  It seems dead on arrival.    

Upcoming in the next few weeks will be the final major indicators of the awards race, the Writers Guild (WGA), the Directors Guild (DGA), and the Producers Guild (PGA).  Also the Brits will mix things up with the BAFTAs.  Not to be forgotten are the ever becoming less important critics group (to the Oscar season), the National Society of Film Critics (NSFC).
 
Green: Locks
Blue: Strong Bets
Violet: Contenders/Potential Nominees
Red: Longshot

Best Picture 

1. The Artist- NYFCC, NBR Top 10, BFCA, SAG Ensemble, GG Comedy

2. Hugo- NBR Best Film, BFCA, GG Drama, AFI Top 10

3. The Descendants- NBR Top 10, LAFCA, BFCA, SAG Ensemble, GG Drama, AFI Top 10

4. The Help- BFCA, SAG Ensemble, GG Drama, AFI Top 10

5. War Horse- NBR Top 10, BFCA, GG Drama, AFI Top 10

6. Moneyball- BFCA, GG Drama, AFI Top 10

7. Midnight in Paris- BFCA, SAG Ensemble, GG Comedy, AFI Top 10

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8. The Tree of Life- NBR Top 10, BFCA, AFI Top 10

9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close- BFCA

10. The Ides of March- NBR Top 10, GG Drama

11. Bridesmaids- SAG Ensemble, GG Comedy, AFI Top 10

12. Drive- NBR Top 10, BFCA

13. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo- NBR Top 10, AFI Top 10

14. J Edgar- NBR Top 10, AFI Top 10

15. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II- NBR Top 10

Best Director

1. Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)- NYFCC, BFCA, GG

2. Martin Scorsese (Hugo)- NBR, BFCA, GG

3. Alexander Payne (The Descendants)- BFCA , GG

4. Steven Spielberg (War Horse)- BFCA

5. Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)- NYFCC

6. Bennett Miller (Moneyball)

7. Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)- BFCA 

8. Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)- GG

9. Tate Taylor (The Help)

10. Nicholas Winding Refn (Drive)- BFCA

11. George Clooney (The Ides of March)- GG

12.  David Fincher (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo) 

13. Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)

14. Thomas Alfredson (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)

15. Jason Reitman (Young Adult)

Best Actor 

1. Brad Pitt (Moneyball)- NYFCC, BFCA, SAG, GG Drama

2. George Clooney (The Descendants)- NBR, BFCA, SAG, GG Drama

3. Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)- BFCA, SAG, GG Drama

4. Jean DuJardin (The Artist)- BFCA, SAG, GG Comedy

5.  Demian Bichir (A Better Life)- SAG

6. Michael Fassbender (Shame)- LAFCA, BFCA, GG Drama

7. Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)

8. Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy) 

9. Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March)- GG Drama

10. Ryan Gosling (Drive)- BFCA

11. Woody Harrelson (Rampart)

12. Joseph Gordon Levitt (50/50)- GG Comedy

13. Brendan Gleeson (The Guard)- GG Comedy

15. Owen Wilson (Midnight in Paris)- GG Comedy

15. Ryan Gosling (Crazy, Stupid, Love)- GG Comedy

Best Actress

1. Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)- NYFCC, BFCA, SAG, GG Drama

2. Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)- BFCA, SAG, GG Comedy

3. Viola Davis (The Help)- BFCA, SAG, GG Drama
4. Glenn Close (Alfred Nobbs)- SAG, GG Drama

5. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin) – NBR, BFCA, SAG, GG Drama

6. Charlize Theron (Young Adult)- BFCA, GG Comedy

7. Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo)- GG Drama

8. Elizabeth Olson (Martha Marcy May Marlene)- BFCA
9. Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia)

10. Felicity Jones (Like Crazy)

11. Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids)- GG Comedy
12. Jodie Foster (Carnage)- GG Comedy

13. Kate Winslet (Carnage)- GG Comedy
14. Olivia Colman (Tyrannosaur)

15. Yun Jung-hee (Poetry)- LAFCA

Best Supporting Actor


1. Christopher Plummer (Beginners) – NBR, LAFCA, BFCA, SAG, GG

2. Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)- BFCA, SAG, GG

3. Nick Nolte (Warrior) – BFCA, SAG

4. Jonah Hill (Moneyball)- SAG, GG

5. Albert Brooks (Drive)- NYFCC, BFCA, GG

6. Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)- SAG

7. Ben Kingsley (Hugo)

8. Viggo Mortensen  (A Dangerous Method)- GG

9. Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)- BFCA

10. Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)

11. Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life)- NYFCC

12. Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes)- BFCA

13. Corey Stoll (Midnight in Paris)

14. John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)  

15. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Ides of March)

Supporting Actress 

1. Jessica Chastain (The Help)- LAFCA, BFCA, SAG, GG

2. Octavia Spencer (The Help)- BFCA, SAG, GG

3. Bérénice Bejo (The Artist)- BFCA, SAG, GG

4. Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)- SAG, GG

5. Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)- BFCA, SAG

6. Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)- NBR, BFCA, GG

7. Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)

8. Carey Mulligan (Shame)- BFCA
9. Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life)- NYFCC, LAFCA

10. Jodie Foster (Carnage)- GG Comedy

11. Jessica Chastain (Take Shelter)- NYFCC

12. Kate Winslet (Carnage)- GG Comedy
13. Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)

14. Judy Greer (The Descendants)
15. Bryce Dallas Howard (The Help)